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Waiting at 525 mph

It’s an odd feeling, waiting for the restroom at 525 miles an hour. Here I stand, vaugely uncomfortable, waiting, somewhere over the Pacific.

I’m waiting for relief, though I know it will be minor. Just a little change on a hurtling jet plane, on the way to something new. I am in motion, but the view out the tiny window from the emergency exit door informs little. They tell me where I’m going, and I think they’re right, but things can go wrong.

This is an analogy, by the way. One that is tortured enough that I feel the need to explain that. My thoughts are so consumed by the blissful torture that is waiting for the future that even a moment of waiting for the bathroom becomes an analogy.

I remember the past few weeks with intense fondness, a little regret, and considerable pain. I look forward to the next few weeks with quite similar feelings.

I felt needed and wanted over the past few weeks. Everyone should feel needed and wanted, it is the best feeling in the world.

Still, I find ways to be suffer by the relationship that can’t be everything I want. I’ll never understand the human ability to focus on pain when there is so much pleasure to be happy about.

I’ve learned how important it is to come home frequently. At least twice a year. The brutal loneliness of living so far from home clearly wears me down. I suffer as an employee, as a friend, and as a person when I don’t come home and reconnect with my roots on a regular basis. I need to know my roots.

Val’s advice, written on Cartman, should have taught me that.

I feel recharged. I’m ready to go back to Thailand, back to work. Incidentally, this isn’t all about finding my roots. I wrote not too long ago that I wasn’t yet worried about getting into USC. I had an interview to prepare for. I had something to do. Now I don’t.

Now I’m worried.

And with fear of the future comes an intense desire to keep what I have. The frustrating impatience with the present is replaced with an anxiety about the result of someone else’s decision.

Of anxieties to choose, and I’m lucky enough to have had the opportunity to make a choice, this is a great one. The future will come, and, much like the lands this plane is travelling to, it will be exotic. I feel stagnant and impatient, standing here, waiting. At times, it is easy to forget that I’m waiting at 525 miles per hour.

On the Benefits of Dreading the Future

For one blissfully painful month, I was terribly afraid. I was afraid that all of my best laid plans for the future would come crashing down on me in a cacophony of dings. I also began to really enjoy my job. I now think these things were related.

As of November 1, I had submitted all of my applications for business school. USC, MIT, Stanford, and Berkeley were reviewing my application and would either respond with an invite or a deny, referred to as a “ding.”

USC was the first school with a deadline, it was also the easiest school to get into. If I didn’t hear from USC before December 1, I knew I had no chance to get into grad school at all. I had no idea what I would do. Try to keep my job and reapply next year? Apply round 3 to even easier schools? Try international schools? Maybe go back to America and try my hand at the worst labor market in 70 years. None of those things sound great. In fact, the possibility that I may have to scrap my plans for a top tier school really shook me. I was dreading the future.

I guess I’ve built up a bit of a complex about this whole business thing. People keep telling me I’ll get in, that always feels good, but what if they are wrong? What if I am wrong about who I am and I am just misleading them? As long as I am in Thailand, at least I’ve got this thing that is awesome.

Anyway, the possibility of a really rough 2012 made my situation in Thailand in 2011 suddenly far more bearable. It isn’t so bad here, I have a great job, great opportunities, and great experiences. I want to go home, it has been a long year, but this job is a big thing to lose without a sure thing to go to.

The coming of winter is always a smug time to live in Thailand. People complain about the freezing cold weather, I pretend complain about the perfectly balmy weather and my sun burn I got windsurfing. The brief period before the tourists come to enjoy said balmy weather is great.

I did hear from USC, though. They invited me to interview and I will do so on campus in the first week of the year. There is still a possibility that I will not get in, but I’m not yet worried about it.

As such, I am once again looking forward to the future with great anticipation. In the short term there is a coming vacation and that on-campus interview. In the long term there is business school and all of the hobnobbing that comes with that. In the longer term, there is the sort of career that comes with having a top-notch MBA.

Those things are fantastic things to look forward to, but they make my current situation much more difficult to be happy about. Once again, I want to move on. I don’t want to be here. I’ve got senioritis.

On the value of Scrabble letters for scoring bingos

In Scrabble, you can score a 50 point bonus by laying down all seven of the letters on your board. In Words with Friends, you score a 35 point bonus by doing the same. Since I play Words with Friends more often than scrabble, the remainder of this will assume Words with Friends numbers for tile and point distribution.

One of the more popular strategies is to hoard letters that are more likely to form seven or eight letter words (eight letter words use a letter already on the table). According to the wikipedia article on the subject, “flexible letter groups like SANTER are built up until an easy bingo is formed.”

I was curious, just what letters DO make easy bingos? one A is useful, two As are less useful, three even less useful. Should I ditch a second A in hopes of drawing something more useful? What is the average value of a letter in forming a bingo? So I wrote and ran a little computer program to find out.

Please note that while bingos can certainly be formed with words of nine letters or longer, I have ignored them for this analysis. This is only for 7 and 8 letter words. Also note that I assume all words are equally easy to recall in an actual game. This is a rather significant and obviously incorrect assumption.

So, the absolute first thing I noticed in my analysis? 1 A is not as high as I expected. It is down around number 5. In fact, 1 A is less useful than 1 I. 2 As are effectively as useful as 2Is.

From here on out, “words” means “words with seven or eight letters common to both the TWL2006 and CSW2007 word lists”

Here are the the top 10 letters:
48% of words have at exactly one e.
43% have exactly one s
43% have exactly one i
40% have exactly one r
40% have exactly one a
34% have exactly one n
32% have exactly one t
31% have exactly one l
31% have exactly one o
24% have exactly one d

So “SANTER” is all in the top ten, but the top six are actually “RISEAN”. Drop the T, add an I (or just keep the T and a list of 7 useful letters).
There are 69 8 letter words that contain all 7 of those letters plus one other letter, considered to already be on the board. 10 words that contain exactly those 7 letters.

But what about multiple letters? How fast does the value of a letter fall off with multiples?

Answer: Fast.
E: 48% have exactly 1. 17% have exactly 2. 2% have exactly 3. 67% have at least 1.
I: 43% have exactly 1. 8% have exactly 2. 51% have at least 1.
A: 40% have exactly 1. 8% have exactly 2. 49% have at least 1.
O: 31% have exactly. 7% have exactly 2. 38% have at least 1.
U: 23% have exactly. 2% have exactly 2. 25% have at least 1.

Ok, how fast is that?
Well, more words have 1 k than 2 as. More words have 1 v than 2 os. Incidentally, more words have 1 k than 1 f, despite the f being worth 4 points and the k being worth 5.

Now the real question:
I do not have a bingo, but I want one. What tiles should I keep which should I ditch?

The likelihood that you will draw a tile more valuable than the one in your hand is a complex formula. It depends on the tiles in your hand, the tiles on the board, and the tiles you are discarding.

Still, I can make some assumptions to provide us with some useful numbers. Assuming all of the tiles are still in the bag (or tiles have been drawn perfectly proportionally), there is a 70% chance you will draw one of the top 10 letters or a blank.

However, if you already have an e, there is a 12% chance that you will draw a second e, a relatively low value tile for bingo purposes.

Perhaps I should write a “keep or ditch” calculator.

The taste for emotions of surprise

“There are two kinds of taste, the taste for emotions of surprise and the taste for emotions of recognition.” -Henry James, Partial Portraits

I recently read this Wine Spectator article about why Matt Kramer prefers to drink cheap wine. Essentially, he is arguing that he prefers the variation and surprise that comes from cheap wine to the regularity and recognition of expensive wine. Now, I’m not nearly so well versed in wine that I can claim any untasted bottle of wine is predictable, but I thought the Henry James quote Kramer uses to support his argument is worth exploring.

For a long time, The Red Hot Chili Peppers have been my favorite band. I had a great time at their Stadium Arcadium tour back in 2006, and their albums have seen heavy rotation ever since I first listened to Californication in High School. Their first album since Stadium Arcadium finally came out this past month and it is quite decent, clearly more Chili Peppers, but I am not at all interested.

In this case, my musical tastes appear to have moved on from emotions of recognition to the emotions of surprise. My favorite new albums are Tourist History by Two Door Cinema Club and the self-titled Johnossi. They are each fairly typical alt-rock, but it’s new and particularly more interesting than the same sound I’ve been listening to for the past 10 years.

Well, those and Lost Souls by Spaccanapoli, an Italian group that sings incredibly powerful songs about god knows what in Italian. A couple of their songs feature in The Sopranos, wonderful stuff.

I wanted to make an overarching claim to the way I have changed based on my recent musical interests, but I realized I became interested in Spaccanapoli while watching The Sopranos, a TV show I have already seen. Clearly I’m chasing down some emotions of recognition there. I’ve also been playing a lot of video game sequels, games that recreate experiences I have enjoyed in the past.

Too much and yet too little

There are 76 days left, and I feel like I may have bitten off more than I can chew.

In an attempt to keep myself busy, I have adopted a lot of projects, mostly things to learn and ways to improve. At the moment, that involves a couple of online courses. Statistics and Financial Accounting. I feel both are worthwhile classes, I just feel so drained at the end of most days that I can barely manage more than an hours worth of studying at a time.

I signed up for these courses in order to help enrich my business school applications, but I find myself wondering if I’ll be able to complete them in time. Maybe I would be better off concentrating on one class or the other, ensuring that I will pass with flying colors before moving on. Perhaps more importantly, I might be better off spending the time I spend on homework on actual business school application work.

Essays could always be written or re-written. I’ve written 15 or so essays for the 4 Stanford prompts and I haven’t yet started on USC or Berkeley’s. I just recently hired a consultant to give me macro suggestions for my essays. My resume could be polished or re-polished. I could be preparing for the letters of recommendation.

There are 76 days until the Stanford applications are due, 76 days until the Berkeley applications are due, and USC hasn’t gotten around to updating their due dates yet this year.

Perhaps the most maddening aspect of the applications are how few things there are to do. A small handful of essays with just a couple thousand words total. A single page resume. A couple of reference letters. A test score. A GPA.

Yet I’m applying to Stanford, the best business school in the world(according to Forbes and the US News & World Report, anyway, The Wall Street Journal thinks Stanford should be ranked in the mid 20s). I can’t just wing all those simple elements.

The test, for example. I figure I could have scored about a 600-650 on the test if I had just walked straight in the door and taken it without study or practice. That would have put me at the very bottom of USC’s 80th percentile range.

Instead, I bought a bunch of books and practice questions ($300 worth, actually). I spent the next 5 months obsessively studying. I averaged 15 questions a day over that period, 2000 total questions. Roughly 2-3 minutes a question, counting review time.

It paid off. I scored a 720 on the test in Bangkok. A 720 is in the 94th percentile, only 6% of all GMAT test takers did equal to or better than me. Unfortunately, a lot of people take the GMAT. 16,000 people got a 720 or better last year. Thats a lot of people who will also be applying for a few spots at top universities.

It’s not all about the GMAT, naturally. Other factors matter. GPA, for example, tells a lot about how well I will do in school. My 3.2 from an unimpressive alma mater (Pacific University, that’s in Stockton, right?) does me no favors. Apparently, under Dean Saloner, Stanford cares a lot about GPA. Consultants love to drop names like that.

I’ve talked to a lot of consultants. There are a set of top notch consultants that promise to optimize your essays and other materials to make sure you have the best possible chance of getting in. These consultants advertise at all of the MBA advice forums and podcasts. They all offer free half hour consultations to try to convince you of their expertise.

A free half hour consultation is a good deal, since their expertise will cost you about $200 an hour. Each consultant I talked to gave me some great advice. One of them, in fact, suggested I take some online quant courses to try to balance my liberal arts education.

I bought 5 hours with the consultant who impressed me the most. Incidentally, this is the only consultant I have not yet talked to on the phone. Unfortunately for the rest of the bunch, their normal business hours are hours that I am either just waking up or wanting to fall asleep. I was exhausted for all the calls (and hung over in one instance).

The point is that it is expensive. Expensive in terms of time and money. I’m spending a lot of tine and money to attempt to get a chance to spend a whole lot more time and money. Hopefully all of these expenses will end up being an excellent investment. I didn’t spend this much time on the first round of college apps. I don’t even think my Senior theses were this tough. I definitely didn’t have as many drafts.

Investment. That’s the phase of my life that I’m in right now. The stage where I don’t want to be where I am anymore, but I do want to be sure that the next stage of my life is better than this one. I’ve been here before. Junior College, applying for the Peace Corps, Applying for Grad School. It’s a tense time, filled with waiting and work, happiness reliant on tomorrow.

I’d prefer that to happiness reliant on yesterday.

Things are moving along

Last weekend was considerably easier than the one before. I was able to work through a couple momentary bits of panic and was in an otherwise good mood throughout the weekend.

First thing I did was set up a few connections so I could start being around people again. I’m not entirely sure why I never joined the Rotary club before this, but I searched out their meeting location and time, and made a note on my calendar so I would be sure to attend.

I also sent out messages to a couple of nearby couchsurfers to see if they are interested in meeting for coffee or a drink. We’ll see if anything comes of that.

There was an Eastern Seaboard Directors Club meeting on Tuesday, which happens once a month. The ESDC is an organization for directors in the industrial estate I work in. Meetings involve visiting a nearby factory for an introduction and tour before reconvening at a nearby restaurant for fried food and drinks. Essentially everyone in the club is twice my age or better, so there is a lot of experience to go around. When conversation moves towards experience, I generally have a great time.

This week, we went to a manufacturer of juice boxes (also milk cartons, basically any tall standup cardboard liquid container). They had one of the largest machines I have ever seen putting together the layers of plastic, cardboard, and aluminum. The thing was maybe 200 yards long and hand a couple hundred rollers moving everything along.

I always have to be careful at dinner. It’s the sort of event where you turn your back for a second and your glass is full again.

The next day I went to the Rotary Club meeting. The meetings are held at the Royal Cliff Grand Hotel. It truly is grand. I’ve seen a lot of very nice hotels, and this is one of the nicest. Pain in the butt to get to though, I spent half an hour driving in circles before I found the right road.

The Rotary Club is another group of old white guys. Here the guys have perhaps three times my age on average, but they seem like nice people and do some good things with their time. I enjoyed the meeting. It’s something to do in the middle of the week, we’ll see if it is the right thing for me in due time. If nothing else, it’s a good thing to be a member of.

So now it is Thursday and it will be only the second day this week that I’m actually going home from work. I’ve got to catch up on my studying. I got a B on my first Financial Accounting test. That simply will not do. I must get As in both classes.

Weekdays are easier

“Weekdays are easier.”
I’ve said this several times now. To people inquiring about how I am and to myself, as if gingerly probing at a wound not yet scabbed over.

It’s true, weekdays are easier. I really struggled through the weekend, but yesterday wasn’t all that bad. I was able to distract myself and keep busy.

I guess I’m glad I know that the weekdays aren’t painful. I was actually rather productive yesterday. We’ll see if I’m able to eventually turn “not painful” into pleasurable. If every day is like yesterday, I can definitely stick it out until the end of the year. If I’m able to get to pleasurable, I’ll probably be able to make it the full year.

This is rough

I posted yesterday about the panic attack I had in the hotel room at 3:44 in the morning. I had already been awake for a couple of hours then, and the rest of the day was a constant series of tasks to complete with hardly a moment left to myself. I didn’t get to bed until nearly midnight.

Christie left the country extremely abruptly. All my stuff that was still lingering at her place along with quite a bit of her stuff that she couldn’t take home ended up scattered* about my living room at 2 am.

My plan for today was to relax, watch TV shows on my iPad, and work my condo into reasonable shape.

Turns out, it was a terrible idea.

I spent most of the morning and early afternoon chatting with various friends back home. I found that, as long as I was talking to someone, I was fine.

It was amazing to me how powerful and unexpected the pain could be. It was typically triggered triggered by a relatively insignificant memory of doing something similar with Christie.

That is good old fashioned heartbreak, of course. We’ve all felt it before. The cure is always to surround yourself with friends and go do things you enjoy, probably with beer. Eventually the wound closes, you find someone else, and you move on with your life.

The problem, and probably the reason the pain turns into something resembling a panic attack, is that I’m missing a crucial ingredient from the cure: local friends.

Skype, AIM, Facebook, and phone calls have all been immensely helpful. As I mentioned earlier, I spent most of the day talking to people.

Unfortunately, people in America eventually go to sleep. Luckily, the gap between the people who stay up late and the people Who get up early is pretty small. Still, it does exist.

At about 3 pm (1 am west coast) my stress level started rising. I felt uncomfortable and knew that I would have to find a way to distract myself. By 4pm, I was no longer enjoying anything that I was trying to use to distract myself. I kept hoping that I would find some way to calm down. I started thinking about making plans for the next day to go play golf (or maybe just go now). Maybe, if things got worse, I’d have to call someone to wake them up.

By 5pm, I was panicking. I pulled up this page to start writing. Writing helped me a lot yesterday, so I expected it would help again. I got to the * above before I had to stop. I’m not sure why I waited so long to do so, but I pulled out an called Craig, the closest thing I’ve got to a friend in this country. He lives about 30 minutes away on a golf course.

He said there was no worries if I wanted to come have a chat, so I practically ran out the door. Sitting in the car, driving, having a place to go, a purpose, that calmed me down. By the time I got to his place, I was feeling decent again. We spent a few hours sitting on his porch, drinking beers, having a chat. (He’s British, the slang creeps into my vocabulary after a bit of alcohol)

I’m going to crash at his place tonight, play some golf in the morning. Here is to hoping this just gets better from here.

Dean’s Thailand Life, Part III

It is 3:44 in the morning and I am afraid.

I’m not afraid because I am in any kind of danger. I am not afraid because I have any reason to expect danger in the future. I am afraid because I am facing what has long been my worst fear: Being alone.

This isn’t the first time that I’ve stared down this fear. Looking back over the past 5 years, it appears that I have deliberately placed myself in situations where my biggest fear will be my biggest problem.

Back in 2007 I left on my road trip. I got in a car by myself and started driving. I had no idea how long I would be gone or what would happen while I was on the road. I wanted to go, so I went.

Loneliness was immediately an issue for me, as I spent long hours alone in the car. Just me, my thoughts, and the road. Not too far into the trip, somewhere in the middle of Wyoming, I briefly wrote about being alone:

“I’m going to be alone” I wrote, “Oh being alone. I’ve got a lot to write about that, but I want to get back on the road.” I planned on writing more about the day to day experiences of being by myself for stretches of time.

I never did write any more about being alone, not like I promised in that post. I just got back on the road and kept driving.

My fears did keep building, however. A week or two later, shortly after I passed on Wal Drug’s 5 cent coffee in central South Dakota, the person who had promised to let me stay at their place that night called and cancelled. She had some kind of family emergency.

I panicked. I was in a strange place and I did not know what to do. “I began to tense up again,” I wrote, “my heart rate picked up, a combination of the Red Bull and the realization that I had no plan.”

In the first week or two of the trip I had built up an extensive network of fraternity alumni, internet friends, and internet strangers. I also had a large number of friends, friends of friends, and family of friends of friends of family,

I had a couple different maps set up for the various relationships and little circles illustrating all the various places I could stay if I so desired. Most regions of the country were dense with possible hosts. There were several stops per state on most of the east coast.

South Dakota, on the other hand, had one circle. One circle I could now cross out with an angry red pen. North Dakota and Nebraska each had none. I was in a sea of rectangular states with no little circles I could call home, not even for a night.

I eventually found a motel that was so cheap, imaginary friends could sleep free. I spent the next few hours lying in an uncomfortable bed in a smelly room, alternately not sleeping and, when I did sleep, having nightmares. After one such nightmare I wrote:

“I woke up. I felt like I had only been asleep for minutes. My heart was beating as hard as it had been when I passed out. I wasn’t going to sleep again any time soon.

“I was, simply put, afraid.

“All of my greatest fears, being alone mostly, hit me. It was now 3 am central, 1 am home.”

I eventually called some friends and realized that, even with a couple thousand miles between them and I, I wasn’t alone. I put some X-files on TV and everything felt familiar.

There are more than a couple of parallels between this night and that.

My panic attack came at about 3 am, though this time it was 3 am indochina, 1 pm home.
I’m in a strange bed in a hotel, though this time it was a 5 star hotel instead of a roadside motel (and there is a pleasant smell of lemongrass).
I calmed my fears by reaching out to friends, though this time it was over the internet and through Facebook.

My immediate desire, during my little freak out at 3:44, over an hour ago now, was to go home. To pull out. To pack up shop and leave. I can’t do that though. There is too much to lose by leaving. To little to gain at home. I have a quitting point. In a little over a year I’ll be starting grad school. There is a date in the future and I can work towards that.

I have a plan. I do know a few people in Thailand now. People that I’d call acquaintances, if not friends. I have things to keep me occupied. I’ve got classes to study for, video games to play (and a brand new gaming PC to play them on), golf to play, photos to shoot, shape to get into, and food to cook (and a kitchen to cook it in).

Work will be changing fast, and soon. It should soon be a source of a lot less stress and, hopefully, a lot more travel. Something else to keep me busy.

I tackled being alone during a three month road trip. I spent a year in Thailand alone during part I of this adventure. Part II was great, when Christie came into my life. She is gone though, back to America. Part III is here, let’s see what it has in store.

Facebook Status Updates from 1 year ago.

Dean Croshere went for a swim in the Tennessee river. The iPhone is dead. Long live the iPhone
April 15, 2009 via Facebook for iPhone

Dean Croshere is flying home. Hell of a trip.
April 15, 2009 via Facebook for iPhone

Dean Croshere says “Fuck the Grove”
April 16, 2009 via Facebook for iPhone

Dean Croshere had contact from the Peace Corps! They want more information. Sigh…
April 16, 2009

Dean Croshere had a long chat with the boss, is pretty much guaranteed to get the fuck out of the Grove in the next couple months. May have a huge opportunity. Like, huge.
April 16, 2009

Dean Croshere will be contacted by the Peace Corps for a “final assessment” in the next three weeks. Oh my, major decisions are going to be coming up fast.
April 17, 2009

Dean Croshere is impatient. Upcoming possibilities make current stagnation unbearable.
April 18, 2009

Dean Croshere is having lunch with the President of the company today. A pipe dream might become a reality.
April 20, 2009

Dean Croshere is elated. I’m gonna go get my passport this afternoon.
April 21, 2009

Dean Croshere is going to Thailand. It’s actually going to happen. I’m going to work in Thailand.
April 22, 2009

Dean Croshere is going to Thailand May 2nd.
April 22, 2009

Dean Croshere is in sunny Seattle. No really. It’s sunny.
April 25, 2009 via Facebook for iPhone

Dean Croshere has a passport.
April 25, 2009 via Facebook for iPhone

Dean Croshere is going to be in Thailand in 1 week. Feels like he should be preparing.
April 27, 2009

Dean Croshere just found out that all the Thailand stuff got pushed back 2 weeks. May and June are likely to be the craziest months of my life.
April 28, 2009

Dean Croshere wants to get out of Forest Grove so bad. Just waiting, waiting…
May 1, 2009

Dean Croshere has the last week with nothing on the calender for months. Only 5 more days of “blank.”
May 4, 2009

Dean Croshere urgent email from boss titled “Thailand.” Go to open it and lotus notes crashes. FUCK YOU LOTUS.
May 5, 2009

Dean Croshere should be able to remove the question mark from his Thailand plans tomorrow. Cross your fingers, pray, whatever it is you do.
May 7, 2009

Dean Croshere may not go to Thailand on the 19th. Whole thing may be delayed a few more weeks. BLLLLALALALLAALLAAARRRRGGGG.
May 8, 2009

Dean Croshere is going to Thailand. The DEAL IS ON CAN I GET A HELL YEAH?
May 8, 2009

Dean Croshere is just about to begin his last contiguous week of living in the Fo Gro.
May 10, 2009 via Facebook for iPhone

Dean Croshere is giving away his cat today. Not happy about it.
May 11, 2009

Dean Croshere says, “Major life changes are stressful.”
May 11, 2009

Dean Croshere says today is fucking nuts.
May 12, 2009

Dean Croshere had dreams of loosing his camera in far away places. My Thailand fears are getting more realistic.
May 15, 2009

Dean Croshere is starting to get really nervous.
May 17, 2009 via Facebook for iPhone

Dean Croshere leaves in 26 hours.
May 19, 2009

Dean Croshere says “Holy shit.”
May 19, 2009